NH040
The Likelihood, Nature, and Consequences of Future Great Himalayan Earthquakes

Session ID#: 78854

Session Description:
The Main Himalayan Thrust fault system and its splays, particularly the sections underlying western Nepal, Bhutan, and adjacent India, is expected to produce great earthquakes, whose consequences could be greater than any recent or historic earthquakes, particularly given the region's rapid population growth. This session welcomes paleoseismic, geodetic, and other research bearing on the recurrence intervals and nature of large earthquakes along this margin. We invite analyses that characterize shaking and the natural, human, and economic consequences anticipated from such events. We encourage discussion of challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from earthquakes strongly affecting two or more nations simultaneously. Our intent is to characterize the extent of our scientific knowledge, understand sources of uncertainty, and motivate preparation by relevant local, national, and international authorities and agencies by presenting the scientific consensus concerning the likelihood of human tragedy in the region.
Index Terms:

4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4343 Preparedness and planning [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7221 Paleoseismology [SEISMOLOGY]


Primary Convener:  Heidi D. Stenner, GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Conveners:  György Hetényi, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland, Kishor Jaiswal, Research Civil Engineer, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, United States and Victoria Stevens, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Primary Liaison:  Heidi D. Stenner, GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, United States
 
The extent of likely earthquake disasters in the Himalaya and how to reduce them (491900)
Max Wyss, ICES International Centre for Earth Simulation Foundation, Geneva, Switzerland, Philippe Rosset, International Centre for Earth Simulation, Geneva, Switzerland, Sushil Gupta, Risk Modeling and Insurance Division, RMSI, Noida, India, Deepak Chamlagain, Tribhuvan University, Department of Geology, Kathmandu, Nepal, Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany and Luis Triveno, World Bank, Washington DC, United States
 
A 3500-yr-long paleoseismic record for the Himalayan Main Frontal Thrust (Western Bhutan) (572839)
Romain Le Roux-Mallouf, Géolithe, R&D, Grenoble, France, Matthieu Alexis Ferry, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier, France, Jean-Francois Ritz, Univ Montpellier II, Montpellier, France, Rodolphe Cattin, University of Montpellier, Géosciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France, Dowchu Drukpa, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Thimphu, Bhutan and Phuntsho Pelgay, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Department of Geology and Mines, Thimphu, Bhutan
 
The Past and the Future of Large Earthquakes on the Himalayan Frontal Thrust in India and Nepal (577171)
Koji Okumura1, Javed N Malik2, Soma Nath Sapkota3, Prakash Pokhrel3 and Hisao Kondo4, (1)Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Japan, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Department of Earth Sciences, Kanpur, India, (3)Department of Mines and Geology, Kathmandu, Nepal, (4)AIST/GSJ, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Earthquakes in the Himalaya: How Large? How Often? How Destructive? (Invited) (587826)
Thomas Joachim Ader, ARUP, London, W1T, United Kingdom and Jean-Philippe Avouac, California Institute of Technology, Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Understanding Earthquake Risk Management in the Context of Wider Transformational Change: The Case of Nepal (Invited) (595406)
Katie Oven, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom, Alexander Logan Densmore, Durham University, Geography, Durham, United Kingdom and Nick J Rosser, IHRR, Durham, United Kingdom
 
The 1714 M~8.2 Bhutan Earthquake: new constraints on magnitude (603668)
Yuqiu Zhao1, Djordje Grujic1, Georgina E King2, György Hetényi3, Santanu Baruah4, Dowchu Drukpa5 and Nityam Nepal6, (1)Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada, (2)University of Lausanne, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom, (3)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)CSIR-North East Institute of Science & Technology, Geoscience Division,, Jorhat, India, (5)Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Thimphu, Bhutan, (6)Department of Geology and Mines, Seismology and Geophysics Division, Thimphu, Bhutan
 
Using Earthquake Scenarios to Communicate Himalayan Earthquake Risk and Facilitate Mitigation Planning (629271)
Janise Ellen Rodgers1, Heidi D. Stenner1, Hari Kumar1, Upama Ojha1, Dinesh Joshi1, Lokendra Bhatta1, Kevin Clahan2, Bret Lizundia3, Rinpuii Tlau1, Mudassir Khan4, Pranav Sethi4, Julie Jomo1 and Aparajita Acharya1, (1)GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (2)Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Valencia, CA, United States, (3)Rutherford + Chekene, San Francisco, United States, (4)GeoHazards Society, New Delhi, India
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