GC083
Thresholds, Resilience and States in Hydrological and Hydroclimatic Systems

Session ID#: 78913

Session Description:
Non-linear hydrological and hydroclimatic behaviour is emerging as an important research topic.  Thresholds, as one type of non-linearity, are ubiquitous phenomena that influence predominance of process and behaviour across a spectrum of scales.  Increased interest in the impact of stress on hydroclimatic and water resource systems from climate change has lead to more interest in the concepts of resilience, thresholds as the apply to hydrological and hydroclimatic system states.   There are challenges in understanding the interplay among initial conditions and atmospheric forcing to create non-linear responses and how these are used to define system states.  We invite papers that (i) discuss best practices for defining states; (ii) suggest methods for identifying thresholds and tipping points; (iii) examine the concept of resilience in hydrology and hydroclimatology; and (iv) identify means by which to predict system state shifts.
Index Terms:

1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3309 Climatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]


Primary Convener:  Brandi Newton, Alberta Environment and Parks, Environmental Monitoring and Science Division, Calgary, AB, Canada
Conveners:  Chris Spence, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Stephen J Dery, UNBC, Prince George, BC, Canada
Primary Liaison:  Brandi Newton, Alberta Environment and Parks, Environmental Monitoring and Science Division, Calgary, AB, Canada
 
The Challenge of Characterizing Threshold Runoff Response: Which Way Forward? (Invited) (491903)
Genevieve Ali, University of Guelph, School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, ON, Canada and Cody Ross, University of Manitoba, Department of Geological Sciences, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
 
Adaptation of the Arctic limnosystems to the climate change (498531)
Irina Fedorova1, Elena Shestakova2, Nikita Bobrov2, Alina Guzeva2, Nataliya Alekseeva3, Anastasiya Pashovkina2 and Yury A. Dvornikov4, (1)St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia, (2)Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia, (3)Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.Petersburg, Russia, (4)Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences (Siberian Branch), Moscow, Russia
 
Novel statistical modeling tools for identifying thresholds and phase shifts in coastal ice cover (553433)
Andrew Gronewold, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Karl Kirchner, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States, Jenna L Jorns, University of Michigan, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Richard B Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States