Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. Such consequences have caused space weather to be recognized as a hazard of national concern in numerous countries around the world. To help mitigate against such events a range of different models are used to nowcast and forecast space weather drivers and events. However, uncertainty of these forecasts are often not well quantified or reported, and forecast verification and model validation approaches are still being developed for different space weather applications. These simulations are key to our understanding of space weather, however any nowcast or forecast contains uncertainty. Appropriate steps need to be taken to quantify uncertainties for data-derived benchmarks and statistical analyses in the space weather domain. The goal of this session is to showcase new research in probabilistic forecasting, model sensitivity studies, ensemble modeling and highlight statistical best practices in the community.

• SA - SPA-Aeronomy
• SH - SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics