A120
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts for User Applications: Charting the Route Toward Subseasonal Climate Services

Session ID#: 79544

Session Description:
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S­) prediction (2 weeks to a season ahead) is a rapidly developing area of forecast development, with the potential to fill the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks. S2S forecasting is beginning to mature and show skill in certain regions and seasons, but creating useful and usable S2S forecast products for socioeconomic decision-making is still a largely uncharted territory. To have value in climate services, S2S forecasts require translation, transfer and uptake by users.

This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of the chain of linkages required for the effective use of S2S forecasts. This includes forecast post-processing (calibration, verification), forecast product development (forecast formats, user-selected thresholds for exceedance probabilities), and assessment of forecast skill and/or value to users in various decision-making settings. Contributions making use of the WWRP/WCRP S2S and SubX projects databases are particularly encouraged.

Co-Organized:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4343 Preparedness and planning [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
Conveners:  Joanne Robbins, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Andy Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Angel Munoz, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Subseasonal Atmospheric Forecast Utility for Crop Water Management (486397)
Obbe Tuinenburg, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
 
MJO teleconnections to agro-climate extremes and crop yields (502125)
Weston B Anderson1, Eunjin Han2, Walter Baethgen2, Angel Munoz2, Lisa M Goddard3 and Andrew William Robertson4, (1)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Assessment of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Fire Weather in Boreal Interior Alaska (503730)
Akila Sampath1, Uma Suren Bhatt1, Peter Bieniek2, Robert Ziel3, Alison S York4, Ms. Heidi Strader5, Randi Jandt6, Richard Thoman7, Brian Brettschneider8, Eugene M Petrescu9 and Peitao Peng10, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (3)University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (4)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (5)Predictive Services Fire Weather Program Manager, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (6)Fire Ecologist, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (7)National Weather Service Alaska Region, Environmental and Scientific Services Division, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (8)Postdoctoral Associate, IARC,UAF, Anchorage, AK, United States, (9)NOAA Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, United States, (10)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States
 
Being Weather Ready Starts with Being Climate-Smart (507462)
Marina M Timofeyeva-Livezey1, Fiona M.C. Horsfall1, Jenna C Meyers1, Viviane Silva2, Margaret Hurwitz3 and James Zdrojewski2, (1)NOAA Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, (2)National Weather Service Silver Spring, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (3)NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, United States
 
Characteristics of the South China Sea and Maritime Continent Boreal Winter Subseasonal Peak Precipitation and Its Predictability (509883)
Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai, Mong-ming Lu and Chung Hsiung Sui, National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan
 
Understanding Drivers of Subseasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Variability over Contiguous United States (512909)
Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States, Andy Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Sankarasubramanian Arumugam, NC State University, Raleigh, NC, United States and Balaji Rajagopalan, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
 
An Investigation of Global Ensemble System for Subseasonal Forecast (516232)
Yuejian Zhu1,2, Xiaqiong Zhou3 and Dingchen Hou1, (1)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, (3)NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States
 
The use of analog based seasonal forecasts for agricultural decisions (516289)
Eric D Hunt1, Judah Levi Cohen2, Toni Klemm3, Cory Walters4, Iyore Eronmwon5 and Thomas Cameron Connor1, (1)Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA, United States, (2)Atmos and Environ Res Inc., Lexington, MA, United States, (3)Texas A&M University, Ecosystem Science and Management, College Station, TX, United States, (4)University of Nebraska Lincoln, Agricultural Economics, Lincoln, NE, United States, (5)University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States
 
S2S Development on ENSO Strengths and Week 3-4 Outlooks (Invited) (517875)
Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States and Laura Ciasto, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
 
Whole Earth System Subseasonal Prediction Research Framework (518496)
Jadwiga Richter1, Anne Sasha Glanville2, Julie Caron2, Jim Edwards3, Stephen G Yeager4, Who M Kim3, Dan C Collins5, Judith Perlwitz6, Nicholas M Pedatella3, Danica L. Lombardozzi3, Douglas Edward Kinnison7, Marika M Holland8 and Gokhan Danabasoglu3, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, (6)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)Natl Ctr Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Application of subseasonal climate forecasts for improving food insecurity early warning in West Africa (520111)
Shraddhanand Shukla1, Alkhalil Adoum2, Gregory J Husak1, Frank Davenport1, William A Turner3, Kathryn Grace4, Christopher Funk5 and Amy McNally6, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)AGRiculture HYdrology and METeorology Regional Centre, Nimaey, Niger, (3)University of California Santa Barbara, Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (4)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, United States, (5)USGS, Baltimore, MD, United States, (6)US Agency for International Development, Falls Church, United States
 
Performance of a Real-Time Global Health-Impact Oriented Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System (520532)
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
 
An Online Maproom For Real-Time Subseasonal Probabilistic Forecasts (533158)
Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Nachiketa Acharya, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States, Dan C Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Angel Munoz, Princeton University, NOAA-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS), Princeton, New Jersey; Columbia University of New York, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States, Michael Tippett, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Nicolas Vigaud, Carlingford, NSW, Australia; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States and Jing Yuan, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States
 
Seasonal Rainfall Predictive Skill and Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Pacific Islands (536040)
Yuxiang He, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Pacific Climate Team
 
A Customer Centred Approach to Developing Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecast Services (562023)
Robyn Duell, Andrew Bruce Watkins, David Jones, Debra Hudson and Helen Bloustein, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
 
Experimental Real-time Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast for Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 over Bihar: A Forecast Application for Risk Management in Agriculture (570957)
Nachiketa Acharya, Andrew William Robertson, Angel Munoz and Lisa M Goddard, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
 
NextGen: A Next-Generation System for Calibrating, Ensembling and Verifying Regional Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecasts (581954)
Angel Munoz1, Andrew William Robertson2, Simon J Mason1, Lisa M Goddard3, Diego Pons1, Thea Turkington4, Nachiketa Acharya2, Xandre M Chourio5 and Asher Siebert1, (1)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (5)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States
 
Developing a drought monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system for South Asia (597593)
Yifan Zhou1, Benjamin Zaitchik2, Mir Abdul Matin3, Faisal M. Qamer4, Ryan Zamora2, Sujay V Kumar5, Jim Nelson6, Kiran Shakya7 and Riley Hales8, (1)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States, (3)International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Geospatial Solutions, Kathmandu, Nepal, (4)International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)Brigham Young University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Provo, UT, United States, (7)ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal, (8)Brigham Young University, Civil & Environmental, Provo, UT, United States
 
Valuing Prediction Systems from Option Markets (620062)
Derek Lemoine, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States and Sarah B. Kapnick, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
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