NH030
National Seismic Hazard Model: advances, challenges and issues, state-of-the-art and perspectives

Session ID#: 81461

Session Description:
Several probabilistic seismic hazard models at national and transnational scale have been issued recently (Australia, California, Italy, Switzerland, Europe and world), and the release of updated versions of prominent models is due soon (e.g. USA, Canada). The construction of these models faced the challenge of integrating data of different kinds, modelling uncertainties, checking the consistency and forecasting performance of the models, calculating a wide set of products to satisfy the needs of different stakeholders. The aim of this session is to gather contributions illustrating the most recent efforts in this field. Topics include, but are not limited to: national, regional and continental seismic hazard models; empirical and physical ground motion models; testing of hazard and forecast models; innovative modeling, which include physics-based and artificial intelligence, with application to seismic hazard analysis; seismic hazard modeling that includes foreshocks and aftershocks; improvements in modelling products that are more useful to stakeholders.
Co-Organized:
  • S - Seismology
Index Terms:

4302 Geological [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4343 Preparedness and planning [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Warner Marzocchi, The University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
Conveners:  Laurentiu Danciu, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand and Marco Pagani, GEM FOUNDATION, Pavia, Italy
Primary Liaison:  Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
 
Research on the Dynamic Assessment Technology of Earthquake Loss Based on the Disaster Situation Data from the Satellite-Drone-Ground (485269)
Shen Yuan and Liang Houlang, Sichuan Earthquake Bureau, Sichuan, China
 
COMPARISON OF SEISMIC HAZARD LOADING CODE REQUIREMENTS FOR SELECTED INTRAPLATE REGIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AUSTRALIA AND EUROPE (485765)
Firyal Bou-Rabee, Kuwait University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science, Kuwait City, Kuwait, Cvetan Sinadinovski, Phd, Global Seismics, ACT, Australia and Kevin Francis McCue, Central Queensland University, North Rockhampton, ACT, Australia
 
Application in Italy of an Ensemble Model with Ground-Motion Prediction Equations, Considering Seismic Catalogs and Fault Moment Release (489547)
Maura Murru1, Giuseppe Falcone1, Matteo Taroni1 and Rodolfo Console2, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (2)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy
 
Next Generation Seismic Hazard Models in California (Invited) (491145)
Morgan T Page, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, Edward H Field, USGS, Denver, CO, United States and Kevin R Milner, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
A Fault-based Seismicity Model (MF1) for the 2019 Update of the Italian Seismic Hazard Map (MPS19) (492728)
Roberto Basili1, Pierfrancesco Burrato2, Umberto Fracassi2, Vanja Kastelic3, Francesco Emanuele Maesano4, Gabriele Tarabusi5, Mara Monica Tiberti2, Gianluca Valensise2 and Paola Vannoli2, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Palermo, Italy, (2)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, (3)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy, (4)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (5)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
 
An Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map for Iraq and Surrounding Region and Uncertainty Analysis (494825)
Safak Soylemez, Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey, Karin Sesetyan, Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Dept. of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey and Erol Guler, Bogazici University, Civil Engineering Department, Istanbul, Turkey
 
The new Italian Seismic Hazard model (MPS19) (Invited) (496884)
Carlo Meletti, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, Warner Marzocchi, The University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy, Vera D'Amico, INGV, Pisa, Italy, Lucia Luzi, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Milan, Italy, Francesco Martinelli, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy, Bruno Pace, University of Chieti-Pescara, DiSPUTer, Pescara, Italy, Andrea Rovida, INGV, Sezione di Milano, Milano, Italy and Francesco Visini, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy
 
How to Move from Declustered to Non-Declustered Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (499500)
Matteo Taroni and Aybige Akinci, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
 
Near Real-time Assessment for the Space-Time Hazard of Large Aftershocks of the Great 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake (500719)
Yuh-Ing Chen, National Central University, Kanagawa, Japan and Jann-Yenq G Liu, Natl Central Univ, Chung Li, Taiwan
 
A new methodology for predicting characteristic earthquakes based on the brittle failures of multiple locked segments in a seismic zone (501704)
Si-qing Qin1,2, Hong-ran Chen1,2, Lei Xue1,2, Bai-cun Yang3, Ke Zhang1,2 and Meng-yang Zhai1,2, (1)College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Beijing, China, (2)Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (3)Northeastern University, Shenyang, China
 
Faith in Faults? (512643)
David D Jackson, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Science, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
Assessment of historical earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis: Did M6-7 events occur in the Korean Peninsula? (514872)
Seongjun Park1, Tae-Kyung Hong1 and Baek Inho2, (1)Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
 
Deformation Pattern in Gravel Layer Embedded with Sand Layer Induced by Thrust Faulting: Investigations Based on Sandbox Experiments and Numerical Model (516545)
Chien-Hui Hung, Chun-Yuan Liu, Chien Hung Li and Ming-Lang Lin, National Taiwan University, Department of Civil Engineering, Taipei, Taiwan
 
An Alternative View of Seismic Hazard for Australia (519673)
Feng Wang, Wenzheng Yang, Rosalynn Wang, Meredith Kraner, Bingming Shen-Tu and Mehrdad Mahdyiar, AIR Worldwide Boston, Boston, MA, United States
 
IS GEODETIC MEASUREMENT A USEFUL INDICATOR OF INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKES? (524833)
Michael Dimeji Olaniran, University of Missouri Columbia, Geological sciences, Columbia, MO, United States
 
Long-period earthquake ground motions in the Los Angeles basin (525937)
Brianna C. Birkel1, John E Vidale2, Ricardo Taborda3 and Thomas H Jordan2, (1)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia
 
Seismic loaded Steel Frame with Vertical Irregularity (529771)
Jaekyoung Kim, Seoul National University, Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural systems Engineering, Seoul, South Korea, Behzad Mohammadzadeh, Seoul National University, Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul, South Korea and Junsuk Kang, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Selection and ranking of the Ground Motion Models for the new Italian hazard model (MPS19) (532441)
Giovanni Lanzano, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Palermo, Italy, Lucia Luzi, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Milan, Italy, Vera D'Amico, INGV, Pisa, Italy, Carlo Meletti, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Pisa, Italy and Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy; The University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
 
Seismic Hazard Analysis in Southern Iceland Using Physics-based Earthquake Simulations (535232)
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco1, Otilio Jose Rojas2, Armando Aguilar2,3, Josep de la Puente2, Kim Bak Olsen4 and Benedikt Halldorsson5, (1)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Computational Applications to Science and Engineering, Barcelona, Spain, (2)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, (3)Universidad Veracruzana, Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Poza Rica, Mexico, (4)San Diego State Univ, San Diego, CA, United States, (5)Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavík, Iceland
 
Influence of Hydrologic Conditions on Rapid Assessment of Seismic Landslides in Loess Region (536876)
Yuxia Lu, Kun Liu, Yucheng Shi and Wenkai Chen, Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, Lanzhou, China
 
A Hybrid Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Northeast India and Bhutan Combining Distributed Seismicity and Finite Faults (540920)
Federica Ghione, NORSAR, Applied Seismology, Kjeller, Norway, Valerio Poggi, Seismological Research Center, National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Sgonico (TS), Italy and Conrad Lindholm, SeismoConsult, Fjellhamar, Norway
 
Analysis of the Long-term Fault Slip Rates and Distributed Deformation rates in Taiwan Orogenic Belt by Finite-element Kinematic Model (543447)
Jyr-Ching Hu, National Taiwan University, Department of Geosciences, Taipei, Taiwan and Yirui Lee, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Disaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Taipei, Taiwan
 
2020 National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii (547177)
Mark David Petersen, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO, United States and National Seismic Hazard Model Hawaii Working Group (Shumway, Powers, Mueller, Moschetti, McNamara, Frankel, Okubo, Llenos, Michael, Rezaeian, Rukstales, Zeng, Jaiswal)
 
A Thought About Quantifying the Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (549430)
John G Anderson, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, United States
 
Earthquake Hazards in Hawaii: Challenges in Assessing Earthquake Probabilities in a Volcanic Environment (554822)
Andrea L Llenos1, Andrew Jay Michael1, Morgan P Moschetti2, Charles S Mueller3, Mark David Petersen4 and Alison Shumway5, (1)USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (2)US Geological Survey, Denver, CO, United States, (3)USGS, Denver, CO, United States, (4)USGS, Interior, Denver, CO, United States, (5)USGS, Golden, United States
 
New Advances in CyberShake PSHA Models (570095)
Scott Callaghan1, Philip J Maechling2, Christine A. Goulet3, Kevin R Milner1, Mei-Hui Su4, Robert W Graves5, Kim Bak Olsen6, Yifeng Cui7, Brad Aagaard8, Kathryn E Wooddell9, Albert Kottke10, Bruce E Shaw11 and Thomas H Jordan2, (1)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)University of Southern California, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)San Diego State Univ, San Diego, CA, United States, (7)San Diego Supercomputer Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, (8)USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (9)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (10)Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, CA, United States, (11)Columbia Univ, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Evaluation of Earthquake Disaster Emergency Command Decision Model in Typical Regions of China (573439)
Wenkai Chen, Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, Lanzhou, China
 
Differences in probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis results between global strike-slip and Japanese models (598798)
Naoto Inoue, Geo-Research Institute, Osaka, Japan
 
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the southern Pacific Islands (602270)
Kendra Leigh Johnson, Marco Pagani, Richard H Styron and Robin Gee, Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy
 
Amplification of ground motions by Cook Inlet Basin from intermediate-depth earthquakes: Variations in scaling with basin depth and repeatable spatial effects from different source regions (603201)
Morgan P Moschetti1, Eric Thompson1, John Rekoske1, Mike G Hearne1, Peter Powers1, Daniel E McNamara1 and Carl Tape2, (1)USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
The 2018 Global Earthquake Hazard Model (603718)
Robin Gee, Julio Garcia, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani and Richard Styron, Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy
 
Seismic Hazard Model for the Caribbean Region (603732)
Megan Torpey Zimmerman1, Bingming Shen-Tu2, Khosrow Shabestari3, Mehrdad Mahdyiar2 and Syed Ali1, (1)AIR Worldwide Boston, Boston, MA, United States, (2)AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States, (3)AIR-Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States
 
Forward simulation of potential-field anomalies for evaluating 3D geologic models (618242)
Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff1, Geoffrey A Phelps2, Robert McFaul1, Russell Walter Graymer3 and Victoria E Langenheim1, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (2)USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, GMEG Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States
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