A014
Challenges in Climate Prediction: Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Predictability and the Earth System Dimension
Session ID#: 81836
Session Description:
One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on seasonal-to-decadal timescales, which have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of global and regional climate-related risks. The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on seasonal-to-decadal timescales will be discussed and evaluated in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of climate predictability in dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application in Earth system predictability. Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods. We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
Index Terms:
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Convener: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils & Climate, Logan, UT, United States
Conveners: Andrea Alessandri, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, 3730, Netherlands; KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands and Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Primary Liaison: Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils & Climate, Logan, UT, United States
Skillful Multiyear Predictions of Ocean Acidification in the California Current System (506255)
Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Matthew C Long, National Center for Atm Res, Boulder, CO, United States
An innovative initialization technique for decadal climate predictions (534130)
Danila Volpi1, Virna Loana Meccia1, Pablo Ortega2, Virginie Guemas3 and Susanna Corti1, (1)CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy, (2)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Barcelona, Spain, (3)CNRM, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
A drift-free climate prediction system using ocean assimilation approach in the Community Earth System Model (550730)
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils & Climate, Logan, UT, United States, Axel Timmermann, Pusan National University, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, Matthew J Widlansky, University of Hawaii at Manoa, JIMAR, Honolulu, HI, United States, Shaoqing Zhang, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China and Balmaseda Magdalena, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Ocean Impacts on Australian Interannual to Decadal Precipitation Variability (551659)
Zachary Johnson, Utah State University, Plants, Soils, and Climate, Logan, UT, United States, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils & Climate, Logan, UT, United States, Jing-Jia Luo, NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China and Takashi Mochizuki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
GFDL's SPEAR prediction system: initialization and bias correction with coupled data assimilation (603483)
Feiyu Lu1, Anthony John Rosati2, Matt Harrison2, Thomas L Delworth3 and William Cooke2, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
The development of a coupled data assimilation system using only surface pressure observations: potential for decadal climate prediction initialization (612721)
Xiaosong Yang1, Thomas L Delworth2, Fanrong Jenny Zeng3, William Cooke4 and Liping Zhang4, (1)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
