A116
Seasonal to Multi-Seasonal Earth System Prediction and its Applications
Session ID#: 81965
Session Description:
In contrast to subseasonal and decadal prediction, climate prediction from a season to a year has long been operational at meteorological and climate centers worldwide. Nonetheless, rapid advances continue to be made in understanding predictable climate variations on multi-seasonal time scales, including ENSO; in the ability of models to simulate and predict these phenomena; in predicting components of the earth system beyond traditional atmospheric fields including the oceans, sea ice, land and ecosystems; in predicting climate extremes; and in making this predictive information useful to society through tailored climate services. This session welcomes contributions relating to all these areas including ones making use of hindcasts/forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, Climate System Historical Forecast Project, Copernicus and other datasets as well as statistical prediction methods. It complements World Climate Research Programme-linked sessions on subseasonal and decadal prediction.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]
Primary Convener: William J Merryfield, ECCC/CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada
Conveners: Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Stephanie Johnson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom and Angel Munoz, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Primary Liaison: William J Merryfield, ECCC/CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada
Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol at NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (506772)
Andrea Molod, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Anton Darmenov, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Zhao Li, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Whole Atmosphere Characterization based on Arctic Oscillation Index (522060)
Brian Urbancic1, Rose Tseng2, Robert Tournay2, Omar Nava3 and Daniel J Emmons II3, (1)Air Force Institute of Technology, Bellbrook, OH, United States, (2)USAF, Wpafb, United States, (3)Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, United States
Middle Atmosphere Response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation Using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – Extended (522090)
Michelle Kanipe1, Rose Tseng2, Robert Tournay2, Omar Nava3 and Daniel J Emmons II4, (1)Air Force Institute of Technology, Bellbrook, OH, United States, (2)USAF, Wpafb, United States, (3)Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, United States, (4)Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2) (525127)
William J Merryfield1, Hai Lin2, Ryan Muncaster2, Gregory Smith2, Marko Markovic3, Amin Erfani3, Viatchelsav V. Kharin1, Woosung Lee1 and Martin Charron2, (1)Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, (3)Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada
Two-year Predictions of ENSO Event Duration During 1954-2015 (526991)
Yuko Okumura1, Xian Wu2 and Pedro N DiNezio2, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
Indian Monsoon and its Onset Forecast Skill in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5) (533896)
Amulya Chevuturi1, Andrew G Turner1, Stephanie Johnson2, Antje Weisheimer2, Retish Senan2 and Jon Shonk1, (1)National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Seasonal Predictability of Temperatures in Mongolia during the Northern Hemisphere Winter using CGCM and artificial neural network (540771)
Joong-bae Ahn, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South) and Bayasgalan Gerelchuluun, Research Division of General Circulation and Long Range Prediction, Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment., Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Errors in the Tendency of Niño-3.4 from Northern Hemisphere Spring to Winter (584851)
Michael Tippett, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States and Emily Becker, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Assessment of Seasonal Forecast and Agrometeorological Indexes for use in Europe and Mediterranean Areas (604343)
Donatella Spano1, José Maria Costa Saura2, Valentina Maria Bacciu3, Valentina Mereu2 and Antonio Trabucco2, (1)University of Sassari, and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Changes (CMCC), Dipartimento di Agraria, and CMCC IAFES Division, Sassari, Italy, (2)Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation, Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystems Services (IAFES), Sassari, Italy, (3)Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Natural Ecosystems (IAFES), Sassari, Italy
Skillful empirical prediction of high-impact temperature deviations (613569)
Patrick T Brown, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, United States, Maximilian cody Evans, ClimateAi, San Francisco, United States, Ankur Mahesh, ClimateAi, San Francisco, CA, United States, Himanshu Gupta, ClimateAi, San Fransico, United States and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Dept. of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA, United States
