H086
Improving Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in California

Session ID#: 82562

Session Description:
Improved forecasts of extreme precipitation are needed to support decision-making for public safety and water resource management.  In California, a handful of wintertime storms are often responsible for replenishing much of the state’s water supplies. At the same time, these storms are often responsible for major flooding.  Accurate precipitation forecasts are needed to prepare for these extreme events but are challenged by the complex terrain, mesoscale processes, and large scale forcing that can affect the intensity, duration, location of storms in this region.  This session invites presentations addressing the performance of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) in California at time scales ranging from hours to sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S). We also encourage presentations on the performance of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) that are used to evaluate QPF as well as the hydrologic and coastal flooding impacts of extreme precipitation in this area.
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1854 Precipitation [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Robert Cifelli, NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Melinda Marquis, NOAA, ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, United States and Michael Anderson, CA Dept of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Robert Cifelli, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A River Basin-centric Examination of Bias in Medium-range Forecasts of Heavy and Extreme Precipitation in Northern California (488779)
Zachary Brodeur and Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Improving Medium-range Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Heavy-to-extreme Events through the Conditional Bias-penalized Regression (517742)
Mohammadvaghef Ghazvinian1, Dong-Jun Seo1 and Yu Zhang2, (1)University of Texas at Arlington, Civil Engineeing (Water Resources), Arlington, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Civil Engineering, Arlington, TX, United States
 
AQPI: RAP/HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events over the San Francisco Bay Area (525470)
Jason M English1,2, David D Turner1, Melinda Marquis1, Eric James1,2, Trevor Alcott1, William R Moninger1,2, Janice L Bytheway2,3 and Hongli Wang1,2, (1)NOAA, ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Evaluating Quantitative Precipitation Estimate Uncertainty in Complex Terrain for Use in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Validation (587682)
Janice L Bytheway1, Mimi Hughes2, Kelly M Mahoney2 and Robert Cifelli3, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation over the Western United States (Invited) (613912)
Michael J Deflorio1, Duane Edward Waliser2, F Martin Ralph3, Luca Delle Monache3, Peter Gibson4, Bin Guan5, Alex Goodman2, Zhenhai Zhang6, Alexander Gershunov1, Tamara Shulgina7, Kristen Guirguis8, Shakeel Asharaf9, Aneesh Subramanian10, Frederic Vitart11, Hai Lin12 and Arun Kumar13, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)JPL, Pasadena, United States, (5)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (7)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (8)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (9)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (10)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (11)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (12)Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, (13)NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States
 
Assessing WRF’s Seasonal Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) in California’s Sierra Nevada Using the Airborne Snow Observatory (625872)
Ty Brandt, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Forest Cannon, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Jeff Dozier, University of California, Mammoth Lakes, CA, United States and Forest Cannon
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