NG010
Nonlinear Systems in Geophysics: Past Accomplishments and Future Challenges

Session ID#: 82577

Session Description:
Nonlinear dynamics, ubiquitous in both physical and social sciences, leads to extreme events whose complexity engenders strong perturbations to eco-systems. Assessing and predicting earthquakes and floods, tornadoes and hurricanes, weather and climate, or modeling anomalous dissipation, mixing and bursty reconnection are performed using a variety of tools. Diagnostic and prognostic tools include stochastic equations, laboratory experiments, observations, numerical simulations and analysis, statistics and big data retrievals, as well as mathematical and phenomenological modeling. Fractals, and scaling laws in general, are one such tool which will be reviewed in depth, with applications to the interior of the Earth, hydrology, the ocean, the atmosphere and in heliophysics. These tools will continue to evolve: How? And where will we be going with them? What are the challenges? In the framework of AGU’s Centennial, this session will assess where we are and what are the perspectives for progress.
Index Terms:

4430 Complex systems [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]
4485 Self-organization [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]
4490 Turbulence [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]


Primary Convener:  Sarah F Tebbens, Wright State University, Department of Physics, Dayton, OH, United States
Conveners:  Annick Pouquet, Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, Andrea Donnellan, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Leonard J Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University at Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States
Primary Liaison:  Sarah F Tebbens, Wright State University, Department of Physics, Dayton, OH, United States
 
Fractals, Multifractals and Scaling Laws in the Past and Future of Cloud Remote Sensing: From the Edge-of-Space to Far-Far Beyond (508874)
Anthony B Davis1, Linda Forster2,3, Feng Xu1,4, David J Diner1 and Alexander Marshak5, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (3)Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (4)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
 
Scale-specific stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone intensity changes (532008)
Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Palo Alto, CA, United States, P. Suresh Rao, Purdue University, Civil engineering, West Lafayette, IN, United States and Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, FL, United States
 
Global Climate Change Forecasting Under Uncertainties (550702)
Juan M. Restrepo, Oregon State University, Mathematics, Corvallis, OR, United States and Michael E Mann, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States
 
A Power Law Model for Describing the Non-linearity of Rheological Profiles around the Moho Transition Zones intersecting Global Subduction and Collision Zones (582911)
Qiuming Cheng, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), The State Key Lab of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, Beijing, China
 
Topological study of the Lorenz convection model's random attractor (LORA) (587033)
Michael Ghil, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris, Geosciences, Paris, France, Gisela Daniela Charo, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ingeniería, Buenos Aires, Argentina and Denisse Sciamarella, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Institut Franco-Argentin d’Etudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts (IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
 
Scaling and Modeling of Landslides: A Review (591143)
Sarah F Tebbens, Wright State University, Department of Physics, Dayton, OH, United States
 
Atmospheric Scalingand Climate Variability Across Scales (597300)
Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Mandelbrot's many roads to 1/f noise: Some little known history and its enduring relevance (601933)
Nicholas Wynn Watkins, London School of Economics and Political Science, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom
 
Scaling and Forecasting of Human Stampede and Crush Fatalities (616838)
Sarah F Tebbens, Wright State University, Department of Physics, Dayton, OH, United States and Tanuj Guha, Deep Springs College, Big Pine, CA, United States
 
Understanding complex nonlinear systems: a new causal discovery framework (618679)
Peter Jan van Leeuwen1, Michael DeCaria1, Nachiketa Chakraborty2 and Manuel A Pulido2, (1)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (2)University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom
 
A Century of Cascades, What Next for Nonlinear Geophysics? (620600)
Daniel J M Schertzer and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, HM&Co, Champs-sur-Marne, France
 
Spatio-temporal dynamics in geophysical systems: Linking complex network approaches with event-based statistics (632080)
Reik V Donner, Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany
 
Inverse and Bidirectional Cascades of energy and helicity in Fluid and Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence: A Brief Review (632697)
Annick Pouquet, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, CISL, Boulder, CO, United States, Duane L. Rosenberg, Oak Ridge National Lab, NCCS, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, Julia E Stawarz, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Raffaele Marino, CNRS, École Centrale de Lyon, Lyon, France
See more of: Nonlinear Geophysics