OS010
El Nino Generation Physics and El Nino Prediction
Session ID#: 82955
Session Description:
Many theories have been advanced to explain the generation mechanism of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific. The Bjerknes mechanism relies on an ocean-atmosphere instability involving the anomalous Pacific equatorial zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Others have suggested that the zonal equatorial movement of the equatorial Pacific warm/fresh pool and associated air-sea interaction is key to ENSO generation. Recently El Niño âflavorsâ related to central Pacific and eastern Pacific SST anomalies have been the subject of much community discussion. Theories of El Niño generation and its demise should explain why major El Niño indices are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, why there is a âpersistence barrierâ to ENSO prediction, and why certain quantities like the equatorial warm water volume can foreshadow El Niño. We invite contributions that examine the basic physics of ENSO generation and how consistent this physics is with ENSO observations.
Index Terms:
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4231 Equatorial oceanography [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Primary Convener: Allan J Clarke, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Convener: Xiaolin Zhang, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison: Allan J Clarke, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Asymmetric influence of oceanic heat content on ENSO prediction (505012)
Yann Planton1, Eric Guilyardi2, Takeshi Izumo3, Matthieu Lengaigne4 and Jérôme Vialard3, (1)LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris, France, (2)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France, (3)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris cedex 05, France, (4)Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL, Paris, France
A new metrics package for ENSO evaluation in CMIP models (505353)
Eric Guilyardi, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France, Yann Planton, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris, France, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, Jiwoo Lee, Lawence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Peter J Gleckler, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Tobias Bayr, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, Shayne McGregor, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Scott Power, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
ENSO Modulation and Mean State Interactions Revisited: Implications for the Early 2000s Regime Shift (Invited) (510411)
Alexey V Fedorov1, Shineng Hu2, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg3, Aaron F Z Levine4, Clara Deser5 and Bowen Zhao1, (1)Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)NOAA Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Atmospheric Convection Dominates Genesis of ENSO Asymmetry (512961)
Tao Geng1,2, Wenju Cai3, Lixin Wu1 and Yun Yang4, (1)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (2)CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (3)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (4)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming (513821)
Guojian Wang, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, Wenju Cai, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia, Lixin Wu, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, Boris Dewitte, LEGOS, Toulouse, France and Ken Takahashi, Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología, Lima, Peru
On the delayed coupling between ocean and atmosphere in recent weak El Niño episodes (516633)
Nathaniel C Johnson, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Chueh-Hsin Chang, Ewha Womans University, Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul, South Korea and Zeng-Zhen Hu, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
Testing the trade wind charging mechanism and its influence on ENSO variability. (540988)
Soumi Chakravorty, UM/CIMAS & NOAA/AOML, Miami, United States, Renellys C Perez, NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Bruce T Anderson, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, Benjamin S Giese, Texas A&M University, Dept. of Oceanography, College Station, TX, United States, Sarah Larson, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States and Valentina Pivotti, Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
Complicated Response of ENSO to Higher CO2 Forcing in a Simple Model (541495)
De-Zheng Sun, Fudan University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Shanghai, China, Jin Liang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China and Xiu-Qun Yang, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
On the Physics of Warm Water Volume (WWV) and El Nino/La Nina (545735)
Allan J Clarke, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States and Xiaolin Zhang, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Data-Driven Operator-Theoretic ENSO Prediction and its Dynamics on Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales (600448)
Joanna Slawinska, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Department of Physics, Milwaukee, WI, United States, Dimitrios Giannakis, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NEW YORK, NY, United States, Xinyang Wang, New York University, Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, United States and Romeo Alexander, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, United States
Air-sea Interaction Processes and Biases in the Tropical Pacific in relation to El Nino generation in CESM2 (607597)
Ho-Hsuan Wei, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Kristopher B Karnauskas, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Charlotte A DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Matthew R Mazloff, SIO, La Jolla, CA, United States
Contrasting the Evolution Patterns between Charged-Discharged- and Seasonal Footprinting- Onset ENSO events (609432)
Ji-Won Kim, University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Jin-Yi Yu, Univ California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Dynamics of Westerly Wind Bursts and Connections to ENSO Past and Present. (610025)
Minmin Jason Fu, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States and Eli Tziperman, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA., Cambridge, MA, United States
