NH033
Quantifying Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Estimates - Recent Advances in Research and Applications
Session ID#: 83417
Session Description:
The resiliency of coastal flood protection infrastructure is dependent on proper characterization of uncertainties in predicted storm surge hazards. The current state of practice in probabilistic storm surge modeling for tropical cyclones is the use of coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic ocean circulation and wave models, driven by a planetary boundary-layer model that provides the atmospheric forcing. Extratropical cyclones surge hazards are mainly estimated using statistical approaches. There are numerous sources of uncertainty in both approaches, and comprehensive uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis is still challenging. This session seeks submissions of basic and applied research aimed at characterizing sources of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in storm surge models, quantifying uncertainty accompanying storm surge estimates and sensitivity analysis. This includes stochastic approaches that combine hazard from tropical and extratropical events and modeling efforts that address scenarios where storm surge is coincident or correlated with riverine flooding due to storm rainfall.
Index Terms:
4304 Oceanic [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4314 Mathematical and computer modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4564 Tsunamis and storm surges [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Convener: Joseph Francis Kanney, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States
Conveners: Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, United States, Victor Gonzalez, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, MS, United States and Meredith L Carr, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Rockville, MD, United States
Primary Liaison: Joseph Francis Kanney, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States
Uncertainty Quantification in Assessing Storm Surge Hazards (486433)
Pulong Ma, Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, James O. Berger, Duke University, Department of Statistical Science, Durham, NC, United States and Taylor G. Asher, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach (486803)
Bin Wang, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc., Norwood, MA, United States, Daniel C. Stapleton, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc., Norwood, United States and David M. Leone, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc., New York, NY, United States
Using physical insights to minimize error and maximize efficiency in spatial decomposition approaches to surge hazard assessment (Invited) (488176)
Jennifer L Irish1, Donald Resio2, Michelle Bensi3, Taylor G. Asher4, Yi Liu5 and Jun-Whan Lee1, (1)Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States, (2)University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, United States, (3)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, MD, United States, (4)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, (5)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Comparison of Statistical Models for Quantifying Future Flood Hazard Uncertainties in New Orleans, Louisiana (497673)
Travis Torline, University of Colorado Boulder, Arvada, CO, United States, Tony E Wong, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Mingxuan Zhang, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States
Impacts of Barrier-Island Breaching On Mainland Flooding During Storm Events (544013)
Catherine Jeffries, Blacksburg, VA, United States, Robert Weiss, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States, Kyle Mandli, Columbia University, New York, United States and Jennifer L Irish, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Storm Surge Prediction - A Subgrid Scale Model for Improved Connectivity (554652)
Amirhosein Begmohammadi1, Damrongsak Wirasaet1, Diogo Bolster1, Andrew B Kennedy1 and Casey Dietrich2, (1)University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, (2)Assocate profesor, Raleigh, NC, United States
Quantifying Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Estimates Using Surrogate Modeling Techniques - Recent Advances in Research and Applications (Invited) (555214)
Alexandros Angelos Taflanidis1, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo2, Jeffrey Melby3, Jize Zhang4 and Aikaterini Kyprioti4, (1)University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, (2)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, United States, (3)US Army Corps of Engineers Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, (4)University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
Quantifying Uncertainty in the Protective Values of a Marsh Ecosystem and Ramifications for Marsh Restoration Projects (622224)
Adrian Santiago Tate1, Jenny Suckale1 and Jef Caers2, (1)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Department of Geological Sciences, Stanford, CA, United States
