Protecting Valuable Resources in a Multi-Scale Effort in Oregon Through Comprehensive Wildfire Hazard Assessments on the Regional to Landscape Scale.

Abstract:

The frequency and severity of wildfires have increased throughout the Pacific Northwest, especially within the last six years. This trend is predicted to remain due to climate change and the associated higher risk of droughts in combination with changes in land cover and land use. An Extension Fire Program Initiative at OSU was funded by the Oregon legislature in 2019 to: identify landscapes in highest need of a strategic focus to reduce wildfire and landscape health risks at a statewide scale; assist with implementations of projects on the ground in priority landscapes; and to provide education and outreach throughout the process. The project consists of three phases: 1. Delineation of the state into 6 Fire Service Areas (FSA) composed of landscapes that are similar in terms of landcover, climate, topography, and hence, and wildfire risk. 2. Region-specific wildfire risk hazard identification through modeling - and determination and appraisal of highly valued resources and assets. 3. Transfer of results to the communities throughout the State in order to assist and/or guide landscape-scale project implementation consistent with the goals of the National Cohesive Strategy.

For the Phase 1 delineation of 6 FSA’s, we applied a Spatially Constrained Multivariate Clustering method that incorporates all landscape features and climate drivers as they pertain to fire risk.

Data from the RAWS weather station network were used as input for the IFTDSS/FlamMap fire model for identifying fire hazard during Phase 2. Analyzing all 163 weather stations available, we applied a machine-learning approach to find stations that are most representative of each fire model sub-domain. Our fire modeling approach considered climatology, land cover, topography, and historic fire frequencies for the cluster-based assignment of model domains. Our fire model results represent worst case climatic conditions. We identified 22 categories of existing highly valued resources and assets. Assigning response functions to each value at risk, we then developed relative risk ratings for each Fire Service Area.

Phase 3 of the project presented is the transfer of results to the ground-scale for integration, revision, and outreach to work in partnership with public and private land managers, landowners, and others in communities across the State.