A sea change in commercial Arctic shipping: Implications of the Transpolar Sea Route

Abstract:

With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially as early as the 2030s, a direct shipping route across the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition among the Arctic regional and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper addresses: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR’s opening; (ii) potential commercial and logistical developments, specifically concerning transshipment; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulatory frameworks and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the socio-environmental consequences of transpolar shipping for people in communities along the TSR’s entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform future national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor.