EP024-01
Earthcasting: Geomorphic prediction for society

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 17:30
Virtual
Behrooz Ferdowsi, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, John Gartner, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA, United States, Kerri N Johnson, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Alan Kasprak, Fort Lewis College, Department of Geosciences, Durango, United States, Kimberly Litwin Miller, California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States, William Nardin, University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States; University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, MD, United States, Alejandra C Ortiz, Colby College, Geology, Waterville, ME, United States; Indiana University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, NC, United States, Mariela C Perignon, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States and Alejandro Tejedor, Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; University of California Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative and predictive one, due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic predictions has never been greater, as development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore the concept of earthcasting: societally-focused forecasting of Earth surface change. We suggest several defining features of earthcasts: they focus on temporal (~1 to 100 years) and spatial (~100 m to 10 km) scales relevant to planning; they generate predictions that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties; and they are placed in a societally-relevant context. Earthcasts bridge the gap between researchers in the field of earth surface processes (scientists and engineers) and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines of basic and applied sciences, and the general public. We discuss these defining features, and explore some of the challenges and open questions regarding the scaling and testing of such predictions, and the connections between forcings, responses of geomorphic processes, and measures of societal impacts. This work builds on previous studies of predictive geomorphology, including the 2003 AGU Monograph: Prediction in Geomorphology (vol. 135), by recommending a roadmap for (i) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling approaches; (ii) transforming geomorphic research into earthcasts with significant societal impacts; and (iii) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community.
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