Communicating New Climate Normals: Not So “Normal”

Abstract:

Communicating the impacts of global change requires understanding the past. Of the many tools available from NOAAs National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Climate Normals have become a standard-bearer in providing perspective on changes in climate across the United States. Normals are representative average values and other statistics of temperature and precipitation that place recent weather and climate conditions into historical context. For example, they make possible comparisons of the day's weather conditions to averages based on a standard methodology over a stable, fixed period.

Brought into use 75 years ago by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Normals are updated near the start of each decade and incorporate data from the previous 30 years. A release of the new Normals is planned for 2021, encompassing the period 1991-2020. Many audiences in the private and public sector, in fields such as energy, agriculture, and environmental regulation, rely on Normals to provide context and set the criteria for decision-making.

Effective communication will be key in announcing the Normals publicly. The presentation will encompass a broad overview of the new Climate Normals—their value, usefulness to the public, and new features. It will also be a preview of how the new product will be promoted and changes in product design and access. Conditions in the last decade will result in the 1991-2020 30-year period being warmer over much of the United States than the period 1981-2010 used for the current Normals. NCEI plans sustained communication to inform users that they will experience shifts in the relative frequency of above- and below-normal conditions due to these changes.