GH016-04
Excess Asthma Events from Future Wildfires in the Western US: A Health Impact Assessment

Tuesday, 15 December 2020: 07:09
Virtual
Jennifer Stowell1, Lin Wang2, Qingyang Zhu1, Howard H. Chang3, Joshua S Fu4, Noah C Scovronick1, Matthew Strickland5 and Yang Liu1, (1)Emory University, Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA, United States, (2)IUE Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China, (3)Emory University, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Atlanta, GA, United States, (4)University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United States, (5)University of Nevada Reno, Department of Environmental Health, Reno, NV, United States
Abstract:
Recent years have brought increased wildfire activity to the western US. A significant concern regarding wildfires is the exposure to smoke and the fine particulates (PM2.5) that found in the plumes. Wildfire impact information usually consists of costs related to fire suppression and physical damage to structures and environment. However, significant consequences and costs may be incurred when considering potential adverse effects on human health. We estimated present year (2003-2010) and future (2050-2059) wildland fire PM2.5 levels in the Western US using WRF-CMAQ based on RCP 8.5 scenarios with fire emissions in the Western US toggled on and off, respectively. The difference between these two sets of simulations estimates the contribution of wildfire smoke to total PM2.5. We calculated the future increase in wildfire smoke PM2.5 by subtracting the present year’s results from the future predicted results. We then estimated county-level future asthma incidence due to acute smoke exposure using smoke-specific odds ratios. The average increase in daily smoke PM2.5 ranged from 0.05 to 9.5 µg/m3 with the highest increases seen in parts of Idaho, Montana and the Oregon coast. Additionally, the average fire season contribution of wildfire smoke to total PM2.5 was estimated to be as high as 13.7% on the county level, with values as high as 32% on grid level. Using the ICLUS A2 population scenario, we estimate that the western US could experience additional daily ED visits at a rate of 15.1 visits per 10,000 people. While the most populous states are expected to have the largest increase in total number of asthma ED/hospitalizations, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington could experience the highest rates of increased asthma events, with rates ranging 25.7 to 41.9 ED/hospitalizations per 10,000 persons, or over 155,000 additional events. Finally, we estimated the additional healthcare cost increase due to these visits to be over $850 million during a single fire season for asthma events alone in Western US. The results of these analyses point to the importance of understanding areas that may bear heavier burdens during future wildfire seasons. This information may serve as a key tool in policy and emergency response planning.
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