AgMIP Food Shock Protocols: COVID-19 and Climate Change

Abstract:

COVID-19 and increasing climate extremes make it critical to improve simulation of compound and cascading risks related to food systems. AgMIP is developing protocols for such simulations for the full range of food system components, including food production, supply chains, and demand and diets. The protocols are testing the effects of climate extremes – heatwaves, droughts, and floods that are 'threat multipliers' for COVID-19. AgMIP Adaptation Teams in Africa are documenting impacts on rural-urban producers and consumers that are particularly affected by both the virus and climate extremes. COVID-19 is concatenating disruption to all parts of the food system, already stressed by increasing climate extremes caused by climate change. On the production side, the farm labor force has been unable to work due to illness and unable to travel due to restrictions. In supply chains, there have been breakdowns and trade restrictions. On the consumption side, accessibility has been diminished. Increased prices lead to increased malnutrition, as low-income people are forced to eat cheaper, less nutritious food. Food insecurity is massively on the rise – levels of hunger and malnutrition continue to build as the months that the virus has been with us drag on. Climate extremes affect food production, and in turn the quality and quantity of food available to consumers. AgMIP tools are helping to develop responses to the food system disruptions caused by COVID-19 and increasing climate extremes.