The Time-varying Value of Forecasts in Multi-objective Reservoir Control: a Case Study on the Lower Susquehanna River

Abstract:

This work forwards time varying sensitivity analysis as an approach to identify the timing of forecast value for different operating policies in a multi-objective reservoir system. This methodology is demonstrated on decisions made at the Conowingo Dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. Initially we evaluated multiple forecast lead times, both in isolation and in combination, to determine the sensitivity of optimal operations across multiple objectives to the forecast lead time. We then analyze the time-varying sensitivities to determine how forecast information is being used over two policies (hydropower favoring policy and environmental favoring policy) and across hydrologic extremes to see how forecast value changes with respect to objective preference and under hydrologic conditions. Results indicate that the value of forecasts largely depends on the objective preference. Additionally, the system constraints can greatly inhibit and reduce forecast value in decision making, particularly in extreme events.