NRAP-Open-IAM: A New, Open-Source Code for Integrated Assessment of Geologic Carbon Storage Containment Effectiveness and Leakage Risk.

Abstract:

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a viable approach for reducing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and contributing to the management of atmospheric greenhouse gasses and mitigation of climate change. Stakeholder concerns about the potential risk of fluid leakage from the geologic storage complex into potable groundwater aquifers or the atmosphere through either natural or man-made pathways is a primary obstacle to the successful large-scale deployment of GCS. NRAP-Open-IAM is the latest evolution in a series of quantitative models for assessment of subsurface environmental risk developed under or in relation to the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year research collaboration bringing together researchers with expertise in engineered geologic systems from Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Similar to predecessor integrated assessment models, NRAP-Open-IAM breaks the GCS system into discrete components (e.g., the reservoir, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, and CO₂ receptors of concern). Reduced order representations of each system component are developed based on ensembles of full-physics models and coupled together to describe the behavior of the engineered geologic system. This composite integrated assessment model allows fast computation and enables probabilistic risk assessment of potential leakage and impacts over time. Unlike its predecessors, NRAP-Open-IAM incorporates several fit-for-purpose computational workflows intended to support stakeholders as they make risk-related decisions at geologic carbon storage sites. Examples of these workflows include risk-based area of review estimation, calculation of reservoir plume mobility metrics, and concordance evaluation to support conformance assessment. NRAP-Open-IAM is built on an open-source framework to ensure full transparency, facilitate use across platforms, and encourage code contribution and modification from the user community.