Development of a Coupled Hydrologic-Hydrodynamic-Wave Flood Forecasting System for Lake Champlain

Abstract:

In recent years, severe floods resulting from intense spring runoff and rain events caused significant destruction of property and infrastructure in the Lake Champlain Basin. Storm surges and waves led to even higher lake water levels and further damage. An experimental short-term forecasting system is under development by the University of Michigan Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR) and U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) that will predict Lake Champlain water levels, waves and circulation based on forecasted precipitation, wind, and inflows to the lake. The modeling framework couples the National Water Model (NWM) configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Hydrologic distributed model (WRF-Hydro) with a hydrodynamic model based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). Wind waves in lake are predicted by the wave model based on the WAVEWATCH III model with wetting/drying areas informed by FVCOM. Model predictions are validated by observations collected at water level gages and wave buoys.