Seasonal and near real-time forecasts of coral disease outbreak risk to aid management responses

Abstract:

Ecological forecasts can help coral reef ecosystem stakeholders effectively manage reef health by providing advance warning of when and where disease outbreaks are likely to occur. We developed an ecological forecast that provides seasonal and near real-time predictions of coral disease outbreak risk at ~5 km spatial resolution for several common coral diseases across the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The models were built using over a decade of in situ coral disease observations and a suite of satellite-derived earth observations and seasonal climate predictions. These forecasts will be integrated into the NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s decision support system. We discuss model uncertainty and how forecast information can guide future data collection efforts or management responses. This decision support system aims to enhance the capacity of scientists and managers to prepare for and respond to coral disease outbreaks.