Leveraging new open-source modeling tools to rapidly prototype pathways for achieving SDG7 and mid-century climate targets in Pakistan

Abstract:

Pakistan is amongst the lowest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and yet is exposed to extreme climate change impacts with the limited economic capacity to adapt. Recent estimates indicate that 64 million people in Pakistan (30% of the population) still lack access to electricity, and 127 million people (60% of the population) lack access to clean cooking fuels. These metrics place Pakistan far below the 2030 targets for universal clean energy access outlined by the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal for clean energy (SDG7). Regional planners are therefore keen to understand the types of technologies and size of investments needed to support expanding national energy access and demands while reducing energy sector emissions. This study supports regional planners by developing and analyzing a set of long-term energy scenarios that achieve the SDG7 and mid-century emissions targets aligned with the Paris Agreement. The study utilizes the open-source ix modeling platform for integrated and cross-cutting scenario analysis (ixmp) and its implementation as the global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM. The study demonstrates how the ixmp tools can be leveraged to rapidly prototype technology-rich sustainable energy futures at the national-scale that are consistent with local (energy access) and global (emissions mitigation) policy objectives. The sustainable transformations are compared with a business-as-usual scenario, that incorporates existing country-level commitments for emissions mitigation, such as planned power plants and commitments under the Nationally Determined Contributions, but does not achieve the SDG7 or Paris Agreement targets. Under mid-range socioeconomic projections, 15-22% and 32-37% increase in average annual investment and operational costs are required for achieving the SDG7 and mid-century targets respectively. Pakistan urgently needs to replace its coal generation expansion pathway with renewables sources, enabled by the implementation of stringent policies that foster the transition to a decarbonized energy mix.