Projected carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management

Abstract:

Wildfires in boreal forests release large quantities of CO₂ to the atmosphere and threaten to exacerbate global temperature increases. As these fires increase, the risk of greater carbon release grows. We characterized the magnitude of boreal North American wildfire emissions through midcentury, evaluated the efficacy of fire management as an emissions reduction strategy, and quantified the cost associated with reducing net CO₂ emissions via fire management. Our results show that wildfires in boreal North America could, by mid-century, emit roughly 5% of remaining global emissions associated with keeping temperatures within the 1.5°C limits set by the Paris Agreement. Additionally, our results suggest that current fire management practices limit burned area in Alaska, and that the costs of avoiding CO₂ emissions via fire management are comparable to, or lower than, those of other climate mitigation strategies. Our findings highlight the climate risk that boreal wildfires pose and point to fire management as a cost-effective way to reduce emissions. This suggests that increased resources for fire management directed towards carbon protection is a viable path for avoiding the release of globally significant amounts of carbon stored in boreal forests. Beyond reducing carbon emissions, increased suppression could increase air quality, create jobs, and minimize disruption to certain subsistence activities. Together, this work underscores the threat of boreal wildfires and points to fire management as a mechanism by which boreal carbon can be protected.