OS005-06
A semi-operational ice nowcast/forecast modeling system, supporting navigation in Lake Erie

Monday, 7 December 2020: 10:54
Virtual
Mojgan Rostaminia1, Machuan Peng2, Jiangtao Xu3, Aijun Zhang3, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome4, Eric J Anderson5, Gregory Lang5, John G.W. Kelley6 and Yi Chen7, (1)Lynker at Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring, MD, United States, (2)Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOS, Silver Spring, United States, (3)Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring, MD, United States, (4)Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (5)Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (6)NOAA/National Ocean Service/Coast Survey Development Lab, Durham, NH, United States, (7)Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL), Office of Coast Survey, National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
The amount of ice cover on the Great Lakes has a significant impact on the economy, navigation, and ecosystem health. Many navigational problems arise during the time of rapid ice formation and melting. It also creates challenges for federal and commercial ice-breaking operations. Nowcast/forecast model guidance of Great Lakes ice cover would benefit coastal communities, economies, safe navigation, and lake-effect snowfall forecasts.

An integrated short term ice nowcast/forecast capability is being developed for the Operational Forecast System of each Great Lake by NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), NOAA/National Ocean Service's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services and Office of Coast Survey, and in collaboration with the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth and University of Michigan. This ice forecasting capability will provide users with 6-hour nowcast (predictions for the near present) and 120-hour forecast guidance of the two-dimensional fields of ice concentration, thickness, and velocity in addition to three-dimensional forecast guidance of water currents, water temperature, and water levels for each Great Lake.

A coupled ice-hydrodynamic modeling system using the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (UG-CICE) and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) is being tested for operational use in the Great Lakes in 2022. The Lake Erie Operational Forecast system (LEOFS) version with ice, is examined here. The operational performance of this integrated ice forecasting capability in each of the Great Lakes will be evaluated over the next two winter seasons before this capability is implemented into operations by the NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center’s National Ice Center. In concurrence with this evaluation, ongoing user engagement efforts for the ice forecast are planned to be conducted with key stakeholders, including the shipping community, U.S. and Canadian Coast Guards, and NOAA, to ensure this new ice forecast guidance capability meets their needs.

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