Project SynopSys: Exploiting Synoptic Events during MOSAiC to enable improved Forecast Reliability in the coupled Troposphere-Stratosphere System

Abstract:

SynopSys plans to exploits routine meteorological weather observations from the MOSAiC expedition, remote sensing data products, and meteorological forecast data to detect and characterize synoptic events in the Arctic and evaluate their influence on mid-latitudes. We implement a diagnostic framework that will advance our knowledge on dynamical processes in the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system. Our approach is based on the reciprocal analysis of observations and models. A particular focus lies in the evaluation of enhanced predictive capability through a synergistic and unique set of measurements in the Arctic and a better representation of physical processes in weather forecast models. As well documented, the Arctic region is undergoing rapid change in a warming climate. This has many implications for mid-latitude climate and consequently on the future social, economic, and political development in both regions. Improving weather forecast taking into account the coupling of the Artic and mid-latitudes is thus essential.