Anthropogenic Vulnerability - Changes in Coastal Policies and Their Impacts on Coastal Vulnerability

Abstract:

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon and is caused by several social, economic and environmental factors. Coastal areas are additionally vulnerable to climate extreme events such as cyclones, erosion, and sea-level rise, posing unique risks for the coastal ecology and settlements. Moreover, anthropogenic factors such as land reclamation, shrimp aquaculture and construction activities can negatively affect coastal vulnerability. To protect coastal areas from such anthropogenic activities, the Government of India issued Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) rules in 1991. These rules were amended over 25 times, before being superseded by CRZ rules in 2011, and again by CRZ rules in 2019. Instead of strengthening the protection of sensitive coastal areas, the new rules seek to promote developmental activities.

Any change in coastal policies will have a significant impact on coastal vulnerability and therefore, there is a need for rigorous policy impact assessment. In order to assess the vulnerability caused by anthropogenic factors triggered by changes in coastal policies, we propose the concept of “anthropogenic vulnerability (AnV)”. AnV is a measure of human-derived damage on ecology and/or human settlements. In this work, AnV is assumed to be the degree to which coastal zones are susceptible to damage, induced by changes in coastal policies. The main aim of this work is to assess the potential impacts of CRZ policies on coastal zones, and their contribution to anthropogenic vulnerability.

Policy impact assessments seek to measure the social, economic and environmental impacts of a policy. A proper impact assessment should be able to capture both positive and negative effects, and importantly, both expected and unexpected outcomes of a policy. In order to understand and measure these impacts, we identify several indicators based on a review of all possible interactions between the policy process on one hand, and the environmental and socioeconomic receptor on the other. A comprehensive methodological framework is developed for the assessment of coastal policy impacts on vulnerability and a list of suitable indicators is identified (ref. fig.). This will contribute to a larger effort to design appropriate decision support systems for coastal zones.