Advancing a neutral density prediction model to operational use

Abstract:

We will report on progress in predictions of the neutral densities in the thermosphere. A new effort has begin with an objective to develop an application that is ready for operational use, while developing improved prediction capability. The project is based on a prototype model named EXTEMPLAR, for EXospheric TEMperatures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid. In this model the temperature in the exosphere is calculated for individual cells in a geodesic/polyhedral grid based on the values of solar indices along with the total amount of auroral heating predicted in both poles. This heating, in turn, is derived from measurements of the solar wind velocity and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) values measured by NASA/NOAA sentinels positioned at the L1 orbit. Predictions will be available approximately one hour ahead of time, depending on solar wind velocity, unlike other models that depend on geomagnetic indices that become available later than real time. These temperatures are substituted into a standard empirical model, such as MSIS or JB2008, to calculate the neutral densities, with results that are more accurate than the original model. The end product will be a computer model that computes the neutral densities as a function of geographic location and altitude, starting from IMF measurements at L1, with updated results available immediately after the solar wind data are received.