Tracking the changing stranded assets risks from existing and planned coal power plants

Abstract:

A global phaseout of unabated coal generation is critical to meeting the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Since coal power plants have long design lifetimes, this transition can lead to large amounts of stranded assets, potentially increasing opposition to mitigation and imposing costs on communities whose economies are heavily reliant on coal. How do these stranded asset risks change across spatial and temporal scales? Here we combine plant-level coal data with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to trace the impacts of plant cancellations and retirements announced over the past few years. With these plans, future emissions from the global coal fleet are roughly in line with the near-term Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement but not the long-term 1.5 or 2C goals. A no new coal strategy would substantially reduce the stranded asset risks of meeting these goals. An accelerated coal phaseout brings very different impacts across regions, with disparities growing if no new coal commitments are delayed.