Forecasting Plasma Density Irregularities due to Equatorial Spread Fusing Direct Numerical Simulation and Data Fusion

Abstract:

We describe a numerical simulation of plasma interchange instability
in the postsunset equatorial F-region ionosphere associated with
equatorial spread F. The simulation incorporates a three-dimensional
potential solver which is able to reproduce the structure and dynamics
typically observed in the postsunset ionosphere. The simulation is
both initialized and forced with data from the Jicamarca incoherent
scatter radar as well as supporting instrumentation in the Peruvian
sector including an HF beacon network. Simulation results can be
compared with coherent scatter radar imagery of field-aligned
irregularities over Jicamarca to validate the results. Overall,
the simulation has been shown to be able to predict "after the fact"
the occurrence or non-occurrence of irregularities along with their
gross morphology, rates of development, terminal altitudes, etc.
We discuss what will be required to convert the methodology to
a true forecast model.