Targeting Desired Outcomes: Do Current Thermal Adaptation Strategies miss the mark?

Abstract:

As the world continues to urbanize, city dwellers, policymakers and stakeholders must grapple with environmental consequences associated with the twin forcing agents of urban environmental change: greenhouse gas induced climate change and urban development. From a hydroclimatic perspective, these consequences extend to increased frequency and intensity of thermal and precipitation extremes. The processes driving such extremes are complex, occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and intersect upon urban areas to deteriorate essential infrastructure and place the livelihoods of millions of people at risk.

I will review recent work highlighting projected effects of these twin forcing agents of urban environmental change on end-of-century US cities. The focus will rest on projected thermal and precipitation extremes, including impacts on people. A review of this work will demonstrate research opportunities that can more directly target urban areas themselves in a systematic and coordinated fashion. I will conclude the talk by outlining benefits of current approaches, highlighting shortcomings and specifying novel potential alternatives that can more readily target desired outcomes.