Economists and stakeholders weigh in on the HayWired earthquake scenario

Abstract:

The U.S. Geological Survey uses multiple-hazard scenarios to co-produce and co-communicate translations of scientific information. The scenario is built on the agency’s latest science with other partners (such as the state geological survey and other federal agencies). The most recent scenario is HayWired, a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area. Collaborations with engineers produce analyses of the damages to buildings, utilities, and transportation systems from mainshock and aftershock ground motions, fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides and fire following earthquake. This presentation showcases the next level of translation into economic impacts and consequences. Regional economists engaged with the development, interpretation, review, and communication of four analyses spanning micro- to macro-economic scales. Topics detail business characteristics and vulnerabilities, spatial context of damaged districts and employee commutes, gross domestic product (GDP) losses in regional and digital economies, and altered economic projections. We illustrate the benefits of business and economic resilience and factors of recovery. To accompany the release of these analyses, webinars with equitable representation are designed to promote interaction with and feedback from stakeholders and to identify the uses and gaps in knowledge of these and other academic economic impact analyses in the San Francisco Bay Area. This presentation will describe the research and the practitioner events in the context of producing science which can influence future actions. Discussion of implications will highlight what’s new for participants, take-aways about social and economic equities, and lessons from COVID-19.