Community Emissions Data System (CEDS): Asia and Global Emissions to 2019

Abstract:

Emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere impact human health and the global climate. Understanding the trends and spatial distribution of these emissions is important to understanding their past and current impacts. We present estimates of air pollutant and GHG emission estimates for Asia and globally out to 2019 from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). The large-scale distribution of air pollutant emissions has shifted substantially over the last few decades, shifting from North America and Europe to Asia over the last several decades. This distribution is now starting to change even within Asia. China's share of global emissions increased from 1970 forward for most species, with emissions related to fossil fuel combustion such as SO2, NOx, and CO2 increasing the most. Since about 2010 (Zhang et al 2018) emissions from China have started to decrease, most dramatically for SO2. Emissions from the rest of Asia have continued to increase with over this time period, comprising a larger fraction of the global total. Emissions from Africa, Centra/South America, plus the Middle East also have increased in relative importance for most species. We discuss the drivers of these shifts and associated uncertainties.