Modelling and Monitoring the Climate Induced Human Population Density over Russia During 21st Century

Abstract:

Sociologists and demographers concluded that at the global level, the population distribution depends on warmth resources with the annual temperature optimum within 13-15^oC. The goals of this study were to quantify the dependence of the population density on climatic factors over a territory. A paired GIS-analysis of the population density layer (a dependent variable) and climatic layers of warmth and water resources and climate severity (independent variables) over a territory was carried out. A significant linear regression model was obtained that explained 32% the population density variation by climatic factors. To recognize tendencies of the population density redistribution in a warming climate by the end of the 21^st century we applied our population density model to the sharp climate change scenario RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). Over most Russia, the potential population density would increase on average; would remain low in permafrost regions and would decrease fragmentarily at the southern border by the end of the century. However, population growth points in the Russian Federation remain controversial. Using demographic regularities, demographers predict the population size to decrease down to 90-120 million people by the middle of the current century and suggest the way to replenish labor resources by the replacement migration.

It is interesting to note that GRP is inversely associated with the population density across Russia nowadays that may be the reason for people to migrate for regions with the better labor conditions despite the regions may occur in worse climate conditions.

The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project: 19-45-240004 «Predictions of the ecological-economic potential for possible “climatic” migrations in the Angara-Yenisei macroregion in a changing climate of the 21st century»