Development of Unified Forecast System (UFS) based Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) for NCEP operations: Strategies for Research to Operations (R2O)

Abstract:

NOAA/NCEP has embarked on advancing the next generation operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NWS as a Unified Forecast System (UFS) Hurricane Application with active participation from other NOAA Laboratories (AOML, GFDL and ESRL), NCAR and operational centers (NHC and AOC). UFS based HAFS will be a multi-scale atmospheric model based on Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core with advanced physics and coupled to ocean and wave models. HAFS includes a sophisticated data assimilation system capable of providing analyses of the inner core structure of the TC, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC's motion. HAFS will enable an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions outlined within the UFS R2O Project and UFS Strategic Plan (SP) objectives.

A number of different experiments based on selected HAFS configurations were run in real-time for the 2020 Hurricane season which included stand-alone-regional domains; nested domains within global models and alternate grid projections. In this presentation, performance of these real-time configurations will be compared and contrasted, and details on plans for operational hurricane model implementations in the next two to five years will be discussed.