Making advanced predictions in the Arctic and beyond: developments and results of the APPLICATE project

Abstract:

The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes in its environment and climate, and these changes have the potential to influence and transform the weather and climate in lower latitudes. It is important to find out the breadth of these transformations, and to do so it is fundamental to research these processes and work on enhancing weather and climate predictions.

A European consortium of scientists has undertaken this mission and initiated the EU-funded H2020 project APPLICATE. The project started in 2016 with a budget of 8M€ with the objective of improving the representation of key processes in coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, delivering enhanced numerical weather forecasts, seasonal to interannual climate predictions and centennial climate projections. The project’s focus concerns the linkages between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, which are explored through a coordinated multi-model approach using coupled atmosphere-ocean models. APPLICATE is contributing to the design of the future Arctic observing system to improve the capacity to reanalyse the climate system and enhance models’ predicting skills, establishing collaborations with other programs (e.g., with projects within the EU-funded Polar Cluster). The project has also a strong user engagement component, which sees the dissemination of the scientific results as a priority and seeks to provide policy-makers and other stakeholders with the necessary knowledge and useful tools to make decisions regarding weather and climate strategies. APPLICATE is also invested in training and education endeavours that aim to widen and strengthen the community working on weather and climate research in the polar regions.

In this presentation, we will give an overview of APPLICATE activities and as part of our effort to understand changes in the Arctic and their far-reaching impacts for both environment and communities. It will be the occasion to look back at the past four years of work and research and summarize the achievements, success stories and impact the project, as well as the community behind it, accomplished.