Subseasonal scale climate variability and food insecurity in West Africa

Abstract:

West Africa (WA) is prone to food insecurity due to climate-, economic-, conflict-related shocks, as well as high population growth and lack of proper adaptation strategies. As per the USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which uses Integrated Phase Classification to classify acute food insecurity (AFI), between 2011 and early 2020, several parts of WA reported the “Stressed” phase of AFI >30% of the time. AFI, mainly in Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad, reached the “Crisis” phase, requiring emergency food assistance. Food insecurity early warning is hence crucial in this region for mitigation of the most adverse impacts in terms of lives and livelihoods. Climate plays a critical role in food insecurity given that, among other reasons, this region relies on rainfed farming and small-scale water holes (that are primarily important for pastoralists and market gardening). Additionally, climate conditions impact health and exacerbate the adverse health impacts of malnutrition, contributing to food insecurity. Thus far, the focus of climate and impact outlook to support food insecurity early warning in this region has mainly been on the seasonal scale (i.e., 3-6 months) whereas use of subseasonal scale (2-4 weeks) climate and impact forecast has been negligible. Recent advances in routine production (i.e. weekly) and open access to subseasonal forecasts provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve the existing climate and impact services in the region by focusing on the impacts of subseasonal climate characteristics on food insecurity in the region. Here we report on an ongoing project with the AGRiculture HYdrology and METeorology Regional Centre (SERVIR’s WA Hub) that (i) examines the influence of subseasonal climate characteristics (e.g. monthly climate variability, length of dry or wet spell, heat wave events) on the food insecurity, and (ii) makes use of bias-corrected and downscaled subseasonal forecasts (from NMME SubX project) to provide outlooks of the subseasonal climate characteristics and their impacts on food and water insecurity in the region. Preliminary analysis has shown that subseasonal-scale forecasts are skillful in forecasting monthly rainfall during July to September, which are critical rainy months for some of the most food insecure parts of WA.