OS008-02
Northwest Florida Coastal Wetland Response to Sea-Level Rise Using Apalachicola-Big-Bend (ABB) Hydrodynamic Model

Tuesday, 8 December 2020: 04:04
Virtual
Karim Alizad, University of South Carolina Columbia, Columbia, SC, United States, Stephen C Medeiros, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Civil Engineering, Daytona Beach, United States, James T Morris, University of South Carolina, Baruch Institute, Columbia, SC, United States and Scott C Hagen, Louisiana State University, Center for Coastal Resiliency, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) effects on microtidal estuaries and their resources are widely discussed in scientific communities and currently evident in these ecological systems [1, 2]. The coastal land-margin of the Gulf of Mexico is the setting for many restoration activities that have been continuously implemented and guided by modeling activities. Assessing vulnerable regions, degradation trends, and providing potential solutions to stakeholders are some of the benefits of applying dynamic SLR models to these systems.

This research presents a hydrodynamic model in the Apalachicola-Big-Bend (ABB) region of Northwest Florida that employs the integrated Hydro-MEM model [3] to assess wetlands vulnerability in this microtidal system. This dynamic model applies adjusted topography in wetlands [4] and spans an area that is two geographic longitudinal degrees wide from -85.36 to -83.38. It also captures all marsh systems, bays, and shorelines, and includes Apalachicola River inflow to show the hydrodynamic changes due to SLR in this section of the Gulf of Mexico coastline. The Hydro-MEM results show variations in low and high marsh zonation as well as their productivity and migration path under three 2100 NOAA published SLR scenarios of intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate (1.0 m), and intermediate-high (1.5 m).

References

  1. Osland MJ, Griffith KT, Larriviere JC, Feher LC, Cahoon DR, Enwright NM, et al. Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network. PLOS ONE. 2017;12(9):e0183431.
  2. Alizad K, Hagen SC, Medeiros SC, Bilskie MV, Morris JT, Balthis L, et al. Dynamic responses and implications to coastal wetlands and the surrounding regions under sea level rise. PLOS ONE. 2018;13(10):e0205176.
  3. Alizad K, Hagen SC, Morris JT, Bacopoulos P, Bilskie MV, Weishampel J, et al. A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback. Ecological Modeling. 2016;327:29-43.
  4. 4. Alizad K, Medeiros SC, Foster-Martinez MR, Hagen SC. Model Sensitivity to Topographic Uncertainty in Meso- and Microtidal Marshes. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing. 2020;13:807-14.
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