Atmospheric Perspectives on the Carbon Cycle: A Historical Perspective

Abstract:

In this talk I will frame the development of atmospheric methods for
understanding the global carbon cycle. The development can be viewed
as a three-way interplay between scientific need, methodology and
data. The scientific need commenced from the broadest scales and
most general questions such as the fate of anthropogenically produced
CO2. Both scale and question have been refined to, for example,
individual cities and emission sectors. the history of methodology is
marked by the import of increasingly formal methods from related
disciplines though I will argue there is vast untapped potential here.
The evolution of data density is the most dramatic of the three with
technological revolutions in both in situ and remotely-sensed
measurements. I will argue first that the gap between need and
capability has closed, despite the greater demands of users. I will
also argue that methodology has not kept pace with the emerging data
streams and that we will rely more heavily on automation and
operational systems in future. Finally I will argue that the new need
of decision support opened up by the Paris accord should send us back
to the statistical literature to incorporate ideas of decision theory.