B067-02
Consolidated synthesis of CO2, CH4 and N2O time series 1990-2018 for EU27 and UK
Friday, 11 December 2020: 05:34
Virtual
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu1, Chunjing Qiu2, Matthew J McGrath3, Philippe Ciais4, Robbie M Andrew5, Philippe P Peylin6, Efisio Solazzo7, Dominik Brunner8, Rona Thompson9, Glen P Peters5, Gregoire Broquet3, Greet Georgette Alice Janssens-Maenhout10, Francesco Tubiello11, Christoph Gerbig12, Julia Pongratz13, Gert-Jan Nabuurs14, Mart-Jan Schelhaas14, Giacomo Grassi15, Wilfried Winiwarter16, Peter Bergamaschi10, Pierre A. G. Regnier17, Ronny Lauerwald18, Frederic Chevallier3, Jury Balkovic19, Matthias Kuhnert20, Tiina Markkanen21, Adrian Leip10, Monica Crippa22, Marielle Saunois3, Lena Höglund-Isaksson19, Dirk Günther23, Lucia Perugini24, Aki Tsuruta25, Prabir Kumar Patra26, Alistair Manning27, Christine Groot Zwaaftink28, Joe McNorton29, Chris J Wilson29, Antti Leppänen30, David Bastviken31, Patrick Brockmann3, Richard A Houghton32, Igor B. Konovalov33, Pete Smith20, Tuula Aalto25, Giulia Conchedda34, Yuanzhi Yao35, Hanqin Tian35, Gabriel David Oreggioni36 and A Johannes Dolman37, (1)Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (2)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, (3)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (5)Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, (6)CEA Saclay DSM / LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France, (7)European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for Energy, Transport and Climate, Air and Climate Unit, Ispra (VA), Italy, (8)Empa, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (9)NILU, Oslo, Norway, (10)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, (11)Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, (12)Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Signals, Jena, Germany, (13)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (14)Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands, (15)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, (16)IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, (17)Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, (18)Université Libre de Bruxelles, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Brussels, Belgium, (19)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (20)University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, (21)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Greenhouse Gas Group, Helsinki, Finland, (22)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Energy, Transport and Climate, Ispra, Italy, (23)Umweltbundesamt, Berlin, Germany, (24)17., Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC),, Viterbo, Italy, (25)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (26)Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, (27)UK Meteorological Office, Climate Research, Exeter, United Kingdom, (28)NILU, Kjeller, Norway, (29)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (30)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (31)Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden, (32)Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States, (33)Institute of Applied Physics RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, (34)FAO, Rome, Italy, (35)Auburn University, International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, AL, United States, (36)Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, (37)Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Abstract:
Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, and their uncertainties, is pertinent to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) anthropogenic and natural CO2, CH4 and N2O emission sources and sinks estimates for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). The work integrates recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based and data-driver sector model results and inverse modelling estimates, over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG inventories (NGHGI) UNFCCC (2020) data, aiming at improving the overall estimates of the three major greenhouse gases in Europe and assess the differences between approaches. Whenever available, uncertainties and their propagation through multiple sources are reported. While NGHGI data for EU27+UK provides quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC guidelines and based on varying the parameters of inventory calculations, uncertainty in estimates produced with other methods like ensembles of atmospheric inversion (TD) or BU models arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models For CO2, at the EU27+UK level, the differences and uncertainties between BU estimates are mainly related to the variability of activity data (AD) (e.g. land area) and methodological model specific setups for calculating emissions and removals. For CH4 and N2O, a key source of uncertainty are the different activities covered by each approach, e.g. TD totals, versus anthropogenic or anthropogenic plus natural flux estimates. Their comparison to NGHGI is sensitive to the geospatial distribution of emissions and the post-processing of inversions for removing non-anthropogenic fluxes not accounted for in NGHGI (e.g. CH4 emissions from natural wetlands, lakes and geological sources). For all the three GHGs large spread is observed in the global model ensemble results.
