GH003-12
The Potential for Future Climate Change to Affect West Nile Virus in New York State
Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 07:33
Virtual
Alexander C Keyel1, Ajay Raghavendra2, Alexander T. Ciota1 and Oliver Elison Timm3, (1)Department of Health New York State, Albany, NY, United States, (2)University at Albany State University of New York, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (3)State University of New York at Albany, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
Abstract:
The effects of climate change on infectious diseases have been a topic of considerable interest and discussion. Most studies of future climate change on disease focus on average temperature changes. We chose to examine future effects on West Nile virus in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a weather research forecast (WRF) model, which allows us to examine the thermodynamic effects of global warming on the future West Nile virus (WNV) dynamics. WNV has caused over 50,000 reported cases, and resulted in over 2,300 deaths in the United States between 1999–2018. The ecological impacts have been substantial, having caused millions of avian deaths, and contributing to the decline of several species. It has also caused economic impacts via livestock deaths. We used a recent Random Forest model fit for New York and Connecticut to predict potential future human cases of WNV based on predicted conditions at the end of the century.
The WRF model produced control simulations (for present day climatic conditions) and pseudo-global warming (PGW) simulations (late-21st century future climate). We found that WNV predictions for the present day over-estimated the number of observed West Nile virus cases, but captured the approximate spatial pattern of West Nile virus. West Nile virus was forecast to increase substantially under the PGW scenario, driven primarily by changes to mean minimum temperatures from July – September. Intermediate levels of warming led to intermediate results, suggesting a gradual increase across the states with increasing temperature. We conclude that more geographic locations in NY and CT will be at increased risk of WNV in the future. The main limitation of the present research is that present-day climate analogs in the Southern U.S. have fewer human cases than would be predicted by the model, and more research on this topic is warranted. A thermal biology approach may be especially promising for resolving these discrepancies.
