Urban Heat Risks in a Changing Climate

Abstract:

Cities are complex systems with evolving vulnerabilities, compound hazards, and intersecting risks. Currently, urban societies and climate are co-evolving in a manner that can place more people at risk from weather-related hazards. Urban populations are particularly at risk from rapidly rising occurrence of extreme heat, which continues to be a leading cause of weather-related human mortality in the United States and in many countries worldwide. There is a growing body of focused work on various aspects of heat mortality and morbidity, social vulnerability, urban meteorology, and climate adaptation. Fewer studies have conducted an integrated research on how the climatic, physical and social environment aspects interact to influence health outcomes, and how better understanding of this system can help improve extreme heat preparedness and adaptation. This presentation will discuss growing risks of urban populations to extreme heat due to changing climate, rapid urbanization, and growing number of heat-sensitive populations. Using examples from recent studies, I will present an interdisciplinary approach to understanding and characterizing current and future urban heat risks. I will highlight how the convergence science approach brings together concepts, data, and methods from physical, social, spatial, and health sciences to develop empirical and predictive models and generate knew knowledge about the interactions among people, their environment, health, and evolving climatic hazards. I will use the case study of Houston, Texas, to discuss current and future heat-health risks and present a scenario-based approach to exploring heat-related adaptations.