Future Hydropower Climate Adaptation in the Global South: Identifying Risks and Vulnerabilities with the Latest Climate Science

Abstract:

Currently, more than half a billion people worldwide still lack access to modern electricity services. Hydropower is a potentially low-carbon source of electricity with promise in the Global South and could thus support electrification goals. Unfortunately, the changes in hydrological cycles related to climate change could affect hydropower resources across the world, and little research is available about these impacts in developing countries in the Global South. Furthermore, policymakers, stakeholders, and the general public do not have easy access to climate risk assessments for infrastructure.Current datasets for hydropower potential do not incorporate future impacts from climate change and how to adapt the infrastructure correspondingly. With this in mind, we developed a climate risk and vulnerability model for hydropower generation that relies on remotely sensed datasets to fill in for data gaps and projections to forecast generation at individual hydropower plants under different climate change scenarios. Using this model, we conducted case studies of hydropower plants in South America (Brazil, Colombia, and Peru) and Sub-Saharan Africa (Rwanda). We pair these results with risk metrics we have developed to identify the most vulnerable hydropower plants in the systems under an ensemble of 21 global climate models and two emissions scenarios. We also identify the sources of variability in our results to understand the limitations of our assessments and to be able to improve the models and recommendations as climate science advances. With the increasing complexities that climate change poses on the energy sector, developing these types of tools to inform planning decisions is of the utmost importance. These results can help shape future planning decisions for the resiliency and climate adaptation of the hydropower sector. Additionally, we are working on expanding the model into an interactive tool to be able to reach a broader community worldwide. Our goal is to inform adaptation planning decisions for the future resilience and low-carbon transition of the electricity sector with the latest climate science.