The power and potential for iterative, near-term ecological forecasting to advance freshwater science

Abstract:

Freshwater ecosystems around the globe are facing unprecedented levels of anthropogenic stress, resulting in increased toxic phytoplankton blooms, nutrient and metal contaminants, and low oxygen concentrations that threaten water quality. To ensure sustainable freshwater management in the face of global change, managers need real-time ecological forecasts to detect and predict when water quality thresholds will be exceeded so they can act rapidly to mitigate potential threats. Near-term, iterative ecological forecasts – or predictions of future ecosystem properties with quantified uncertainty that are updated with observational data as they become available - have great potential for improving aquatic management as well as advancing our understanding of aquatic ecosystem dynamics. This presentation will provide an overview of new community-building efforts emerging from the Ecological Forecasting Initiative and the status of near-term, iterative ecological forecasting applications in freshwater ecosystems. In particular, we will highlight FLARE (Forecasting Lake And Reservoir Ecosystems), an open-source forecasting framework that we applied to a drinking water reservoir to assist water quality management. We share the major lessons learned from our experience developing and running FLARE over two years, which can hopefully inform other forecasting projects. Our goal is to break down the barriers to forecasting for freshwater researchers, with the aim of increasing forecasting in lakes and reservoirs globally.