Modeling Increased Impacts of Nor’easters Due to Sea Level Rise in Coastal New England Parks

Abstract:

In New England, the primary storm impacts are from Nor’easters rather than hurricanes, which are the major concern further south, and are better understood. While research on how climate change is affecting hurricanes is an active area of research, there is limited information on how the impact of Nor’easters may be amplified under a changing climate. Sea level rise is exacerbation coastal inundation during wind induced storm surge. In this study, we simulate the storm surge and inundation induced by the March 1-3, 2018 Nor’easter in two New England Parks, Cape Cod National Seashore and Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area, using the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC) with winds based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts models (ECMWF). Model results were validated with wind data from the National Climate Data Center and the National Data Buoy Center and the tide gauge data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. The impact of the projected sea level rise on storm predictions were investigated base on four IPCC emissions scenarios. The highest sea level rise scenario produced significantly larger inundation areas than the historic storm and has higher water depths in the areas that were flooded in the historic storm. The lowest sea level rise scenario did not noticeably change the inundation area and the water depth increase was equivalent to the sea level rise. This project will help park managers be better prepared to make the park safer for the public and plan for adaptation strategies to protect the park resources.