Linking AgMIP model components to build resilience in food systems and disasters via early-warning and forewarning

Abstract:

International trade, modern engineering, and agricultural technologies have enabled a tremendous increase in agricultural production, economic gains, and a reduction in food insecurity in many parts of the world. The food system is still challenged to better reach and serve vulnerable and food insecure populations, provide balanced nutrition, respond to disasters, and build resilience amongst changing environmental conditions including soil degradation and climate change. The structure of the food system can itself be a benefit or hindrance to food security, and its ever-changing interlinkages require careful consideration of feedback loops and unintended consequences as actions are taken to respond to food shocks.

This presentation will describe efforts taken within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related projects to build modeling tools and frameworks that are capable of representing key food system elements and connections in order to allow the testing of development, policy, and investment strategies for improved food systems. This is accomplished by examining:

• Different ‘flavors’ of food shocks that can lead to unique profiles of impact, including compound hazards affecting production, value chains, and consumption patterns from local to global scales.
• Agricultural models that have been developed to focus on discrete elements of the food system, including field-level management and production, household economics, value chains processes, global and regional markets, and human health models incorporating nutritional consumption.
• ‘Warm data’ describing interactional information about relationships among food system components and their response to changing conditions, which are critical to understanding cascading effects and system behavior.

Preliminary results from multi-model frameworks applied to food shock scenarios will underscore the need for further recognition of important storylines, pathways to impact, and key points of intervention or vulnerability that can substantially affect overall system response. These also shed light on key state variables, processes, and model linkages that contribute to early warning systems that allow quick reaction to food shocks as well as forewarning analyses for proactive resilience planning.