SH003-0009
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Energetic Proton Event Forecast Skill

Monday, 7 December 2020
Poster
Hazel M Bain1,2, Robert A Steenburgh3, Terrance G Onsager1, Robert Rutledge4, Christopher C Balch5 and Noah Stitely6, (1)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA-Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Millersville University, Millersville, PA, United States
Abstract:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) issues space weather forecasts and alerts for solar radiation storms at Earth. Specifically, these forecasts indicate the likelihood that the flux of energetic protons, as recorded by the GOES spacecraft in geostationary orbit, will exceed predefined operational thresholds. We present a verification of SWPC proton forecasts for solar cycles 23 and 24 and discuss the performance and skill with which these events can be forecast.
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