A Macro Energy Modeling Framework For Transparent Investigation Of Fundamental Energy System Properties

Abstract:

We have been developing and applying a Macro Energy Mode (MEM) to provide quantitative results that help us think qualitatively about near-term actions that could help facilitate century-scale energy system transitions.

On the century time scale, we have little confidence in our ability to predict the cost and range of available energy technologies. However, we know that there will be energy sources, energy carriers, and energy demand, and that energy will be converted from one form to another, and these conversions will have some efficiency, involve some fixed capacity cost and some variable costs. Some of these generation sources will have maximum generation rates that depend on the weather (e.g., wind and solar) while others are dispatchable to maximum capacity at any time. Similarly, we know that storage forms will have some round-trip efficiency, some leakage rate, and various costs. Our intent is to provide a transparent, open, resource that will allow others to evaluate the evidence on which our conclusions are based, and to build on our work.

Recent investigations with this model include: electricity storage requirements for variable renewable dominated electricity systems, a Monte Carlo analysis of possible architectures of future near-zero emission energy systems, sensitivity of least-cost electricity systems to assumptions about storage costs; the degree to which nuclear and non-dispatchable renewables either compete with or complement each other; and the potential role of power-to-gas-to-power for inter-seasonal energy storage.

There are a number of gaps that our Macro Energy Modeling effort is meant to address: There is a substantial amount of knowledge among energy-system experts that is not being adequately communicated to people who make or influence energy-system decisions. Further, it is often difficult to understand the general applicability of conclusions drawn from some energy system model results, because simulations are costly and thus performed only for a narrow range of model parameter values. Lastly, many of these models are not open source, making it difficult to assess assumptions or verify computational procedures.

Our goal is to understand and communicate properties of energy systems that are independent of detailed assumptions of specific existing energy technologies and the current state of our energy system. Our aim is to support decision-making primarily by those focused on century-scale energy transitions, such as governmental research agencies and philanthropists who take a long-term view.