The Future of Forest Ecosystem Benefits: Science-Based Management in the Anthropocene

Abstract:

Given the urgency of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide at a “level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC), changes in forest policies and practices are essential to help limit climate change and sustain forest ecosystem function in the Anthropocene. Goals of zero net carbon by 2050 cannot be met if current forest practices continue. We have only a few decades to avoid irreversible feedbacks of many forests becoming sources instead of sinks for carbon dioxide. Forest management practices need to optimize essential forest ecosystem services, including water availability and biodiversity. We developed a framework that relies on satellite and field observations to model ecosystem responses to climate and carbon dioxide projections. It ranks forest ecosystem service metrics to identify regions with specific vulnerabilities to projected future climate and different potential for carbon storage, climate resilience and biodiversity. Such science-based approaches can be modified and implemented at landscape to regional scale. Present over-exploitation of forest ecosystems must be curtailed and must instead increase carbon accumulation to avoid exceeding climate and biodiversity planetary boundaries.