Geothermal Outburst Risk Management

Abstract:

Geothermal outbursts occur when fluid pockets (steam or superheated water) in the ground at high temperatures and pressures are uncovered, causing an uncontrolled release of energy in which large volumes of hot rock, steam, and geothermal fluid are ejected at dangerous speeds. Past research has been unable to provide accurate analytical methods to predict potential outburst event positions, or to quantify the risk of an outburst at a certain location. Therefore, mitigating outburst risk is a challenging task.

This project evaluates the reliability of existing outburst risk management processes against a database of known outburst events. Available data employed in the analyses include probe-hole temperature data; subsurface pressure prior to outburst events; and energy estimates obtained from outburst crater volumes. Existing outburst modelling tools and risk estimates are run on data obtained prior to the events, using high performance computing clusters to evaluate their accuracy and sensitivity to input parameters. This presentation discusses the results of this analysis and offers suggestions for potential improvements to the current practice of geothermal outburst risk management.