The effect of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 transmission

Abstract:

Meteorological conditions may affect the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (a.k.a., COVID-19) by changing the effectiveness of virus transmission and the strength of the human immune system. Given the differences in population density and the heterogeneous public health intervention strategies among different regions, it is complex to reveal and quantify the relationship between weather conditions and the disease transmission. Considering the aforementioned human-related impacts, this study analyzes the effect of several meteorological variables on the spread of COVID-19 across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at the county level. Specifically, the study adopts traditional statistical analysis and machine learning-based techniques to quantify weather and COVID-19 relationships by using i) satellite-based meteorological products, including air temperature, wind speed, humidity, precipitation, and radiation flux, ii) human-related factors, including population density and social distancing index, and iii) disease transmission features, including the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and death cases.